Artificial Intelligence: Indict Indian Harvest or Winter Chill?
In a thought-provoking article published on Thursday, October 9, 2025, at 2:30 PM ET, Nicklas Berild Lundblad, a Senior Fellow with the Tech Policy Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), advocated for the establishment of a long-term observatory for artificial intelligence (AI).
The article, published in Bandwidth—CEPA's online journal dedicated to advancing transatlantic cooperation on tech policy—sheds light on the need for a comprehensive and long-term approach to AI regulation. Berild Lundblad argues that AI investment plans, currently surging into the billions and trillions, necessitate a careful examination of the potential impacts of AI on various sectors.
Berild Lundblad, who has 20 years of experience leading, building, and developing policy functions at companies like Google, Stripe, and DeepMind, suggests that we might be heading for some "dreary autumn AI weather." He draws a parallel between the unpredictable changes in weather and the potential shifts in AI capabilities over time.
Climate change experts distinguish between weather and climate, with a slow shift in climate emerging over time. Similarly, Berild Lundblad argues that AI regulation should take a long-term view and avoid trying to legislate for short-term changes. Instead, he proposes the creation of a long-term observatory for AI that would explore different scenarios, key dimensions of change, and possible policy options.
The observatory, according to Berild Lundblad, should also consider metrics like the percentage of jobs displaced, the length of autonomous tasks AI can perform, and the percentage of benchmarks that change over time. This approach is similar to that of an AI capabilities report, which would provide policymakers with a space of possibilities crucial for exploring the future of AI.
Berild Lundblad's article comes at a time when AI weather predictions are trending. On Manifold Markets, a question was posed about an AI winter at the end of 2025, with a current prediction of a 1.1% chance. Meanwhile, OpenAI's GPT-5 received a muted response, raising questions about the readiness of AI to handle complex tasks.
As AI is expected to produce profound changes in various fields over time, Berild Lundblad encourages readers to register and read more on the topic. The article concludes with a call to action, urging policymakers and industry leaders to consider the long-term implications of AI and to work towards a sustainable and responsible future.
CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications, ensuring that the insights and recommendations provided in Berild Lundblad's article are based on rigorous research and analysis. Bandwidth remains a valuable resource for those interested in the intersection of technology and policy, offering a platform for informed discussion and debate on critical issues.
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