Bitcoin analyst's prediction: Stuck in its current state, no action necessary until October arrives
In a recent analysis, Josh Olszewicz, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst, shared his insights on Bitcoin's price trajectory for the remainder of 2022 and beyond.
At present, Ethereum is experiencing a resurgence in ETF inflows, while Bitcoin's flows have flipped negative. Olszewicz referenced a Bollinger Band squeeze last week, which resolved to the downside due to weak US jobs data, negative ETF flows, and escalating geopolitical tensions.
Despite these bearish signs, Olszewicz remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term potential. He predicted that Bitcoin could reach $300,000 by the end of 2022, implying around a 160% upside from its price at that time.
Olszewicz's analysis considers several factors. The supply constraints, with nearly 95% of Bitcoin’s total supply (21 million coins) already mined, could potentially increase price due to scarcity. Additionally, growing demand for Bitcoin over the coming years is expected to push prices higher, supported by limited active supply.
Technical and fundamental factors also play a significant role in Olszewicz's analysis. He described Bitcoin as being in “macro purgatory” with an important decision point around Q4 2022. The price could move in a range from approximately $75,000 to $150,000 depending on factors like ETF inflows, institutional interest, macroeconomic conditions, and market sentiment.
Historical cycle analysis also suggests that Bitcoin's bull market is not over, with parabolic moves often occurring in the final phases of a market cycle, hinting at the potential for continued price growth.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $114,517. A potential bearish TK cross on the Ichimoku Cloud could trigger a sell signal in Olszewicz's system. The next level for Bitcoin, if it breaks the $122,000 mark, is $150,000, according to Olszewicz.
However, Olszewicz warned that the next two months, August and September, are generally unfavorable for Bitcoin. He identified the $117K-$120K range as a potential re-entry zone for traders if BTC can reclaim that area within the next two weeks.
Olszewicz's assessment suggests that a more compelling risk-reward profile for Bitcoin may not emerge until Q4. He emphasized the importance of staying patient, staying liquid, and watching October due to Bitcoin's technical holding pattern, negative flows, weak seasonality, and risk-off signals from legacy markets.
In his August 3 video analysis, Olszewicz also noted that the decision tree for Bitcoin's market in August and September has become wider due to the negative ETF flows. He stated that ETF flows, if anything, could potentially save Bitcoin in August and September, but the current trajectory shows little promise of reversal.
Furthermore, commercials have dropped off a cliff, according to COT data from CME, indicating a sharp reduction in institutional positioning on the long side.
Looking back at Bitcoin's history, August and September of 2021 were marked by Mt. Gox distributions and German government sell-offs, but it rallied in October following the approval of spot ETFs. Whether history will repeat itself remains to be seen.
In conclusion, while the short-term outlook for Bitcoin may be uncertain, Olszewicz's analysis suggests a bullish long-term outlook, with a potential price range of $75,000 to $150,000 in Q4 2022, and a more ambitious target of $300,000 under certain conditions. However, he cautioned against forcing trades in this environment, emphasizing the importance of patience and careful analysis.
- Josh Olszewicz, a cryptocurrency analyst, predicts that Bitcoin could reach $300,000 by the end of 2022, highlighting its long-term potential in the finance and technology sector.
- Despite current bearish signs, Olszewicz remains optimistic about Bitcoin's price, considering factors such as supply constraints, growing demand, and scarcity as possible price drivers.
- At present, Ethereum is experiencing a resurgence in ETF inflows, while Bitcoin's flows have flipped negative, indicating a potential shift in market trading trends for these popular coins.
- Technical factors, like the potential bearish TK cross on the Ichimoku Cloud, and fundamental factors, such as ETF inflows, institutional interest, macroeconomic conditions, and market sentiment, are significant considerations in Olszewicz's analysis of Bitcoin's market.
- Olszewicz warns that the next two months, August and September, are generally unfavorable for Bitcoin, but he emphasizes the importance of staying patient, staying liquid, and watching October due to Bitcoin's technical holding pattern, negative flows, weak seasonality, and risk-off signals from legacy markets.
