Bitcoin foreseen to reach $1.14 million by Chamath, with reasons discussed below.
In an intriguing prediction, venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya has suggested that the price of Bitcoin could reach an astounding $1,140,000 in this cycle. This forecast is built on the foundations of Bitcoin's past halving cycles, increasing institutional demand, and the global trend towards de-dollarization.
Past Halving Cycles
Bitcoin undergoes a halving event roughly every four years, reducing the mining reward by 50%. Historically, these halving events have preceded major bull markets, driving prices sharply higher. For instance, the price of Bitcoin climbed more than 87 folds after the 2012 halving, and over 45 times following a halving in 2016. The 2024 halving reduced block rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, continuing this pattern of supply tightening.
Institutional Demand
Palihapitiya emphasizes the growing interest from institutional investors such as hedge funds, family offices, and corporations. These entities provide sustained, large-scale demand beyond retail speculation, changing Bitcoin’s supply-demand dynamics and potentially fueling further price appreciation. The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs allows main actors, including pension funds, to easily invest in Bitcoin.
De-Dollarization Movement
A key macroeconomic trend Palihapitiya highlights is the global move away from the US dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency. Bitcoin, with its fixed supply and decentralized nature, is seen as a hedge against fiat currency debasement and geopolitical risk. This elevates Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value alternative in a world experiencing de-dollarization, increasing demand and potentially justifying extremely high valuations.
Palihapitiya links Bitcoin’s past halving-driven scarcity with current and future institutional inflows and macroeconomic forces like de-dollarization to reason that Bitcoin’s fair value could exceed $1 million per coin. The figure of $1,140,000 likely extrapolates from past returns between halvings combined with an accelerated adoption curve and the added premium from being a key player in a post-dollar world.
In addition to this, Palihapitiya uses the market cap of gold to argue for a potential Bitcoin price of 700,000, representing a 10% value of gold. He compares Bitcoin to gold in terms of scarcity and trust, emphasizing Bitcoin's potential role as a digital gold alternative.
It's important to note that some analysts suggest that the halving cycles are now less predictive in isolation, emphasizing the importance of macro factors and adoption trends over strict supply mechanics alone. However, Palihapitiya's forecast remains confident and statistically based.
In summary, Palihapitiya's $1,140,000 Bitcoin price thesis connects:
- The scarcity and price patterns induced by past halving cycles,
- The elevated institutional demand that adds new momentum beyond retail patterns,
- The growing global trend of de-dollarization boosting Bitcoin’s role as a digital gold alternative.
This convergence supports his bullish long-term projection.
In the prediction by venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya, the past Bitcoin halving cycles that historically preceded significant bull markets, the growing institutional demand from entities like hedge funds and pension funds, and the global shift towards de-dollarization, collectively contribute to a potential Bitcoin price of $1,140,000. Furthermore, Palihapitiya compares Bitcoin to gold due to their shared scarcity and trust, proposing a price of 700,000 as a digital gold alternative representing a 10% value of gold's market cap. Lastly, he considers that these factors justify such a high valuation as they align Bitcoin with a key player positioned in a post-dollar world.
