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The Decline of Manual Transmissions in New Car Sales
The manual gearbox, once a staple of the driving experience, is becoming less common in new-car registrations. This shift is primarily due to regulatory costs, the industry transition to electric vehicles (EVs), and changing consumer preferences.
High certification costs are a significant factor. Automakers must individually certify emissions and fuel economy for every powertrain variant, including those with a manual transmission. Each certification can cost upwards of $10 million, making it financially unviable to offer manual options with low sales volumes.
Regulatory pressure also plays a role. Increasingly strict emissions and fuel economy standards, especially from agencies like the EPA, discourage manufacturers from developing and offering manual transmissions, which generally do not optimize these metrics as well as automatics or continuously variable transmissions (CVTs).
The industry is moving towards EVs, which do not have multi-gear transmissions at all, effectively phasing out manual gearboxes entirely by the end of the decade. This shift is partly driven by changing consumer preferences. The broader market favors automatics due to their ease of use and fuel efficiency, leading to a declining interest in manuals.
Sports cars, traditionally associated with manuals, have seen a shrinking market partly because they are considered less practical and more expensive options. While some enthusiasts and certain sports car segments still offer manuals, these represent a shrinking niche. The lack of manuals in flagship models like the Corvette C8 reflects this trend and is partly driven by packaging and design choices alongside the cost factors.
Industry leaders acknowledge the quiet demise of manual transmissions. Companies like Hyundai have signaled an end to manuals due to changing consumer demands and market conditions.
However, manual transmissions will likely continue to exist in the used-car market due to their enduring appeal among those who cherish the art of driving. Moreover, many producers of performance cars equip them with a manual transmission, as it is seen as key to the driving experience.
As all powertrain types become more technologically advanced, automatic transmissions are proving the natural choice for carmakers. Modern automatic transmissions can optimize gear shifts with precision, resulting in improved fuel economy and reduced emissions.
The EU has introduced more stringent CO2 emission standards, which came into effect this year and will tighten over time, culminating in a planned ban on the sale of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2035. The increase in popularity of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) is one reason for the decline in manual gearbox uptake.
The UK's zero emission vehicle mandate requires manufacturers to sell an increasing percentage of zero-emission vehicles each year, aiming to accelerate the transition to cleaner transport. France has introduced a malus scheme for cars that cause pollution, which is pushing buyers towards cars without a manual transmission.
In 2024, the number of electric vehicles (EVs) delivered worldwide increased by 26.1%. These vehicles use a single-speed transmission. As of 2025, registrations of vehicles with automatic transmissions are up 9.5%, while manual transmissions have fallen 2.6%. There are now over 1.3 million BEVs on UK roads, up 38.9% year on year.
In response to the declining demand for manual transmissions, Toyota has confirmed plans to develop a simulated manual transmission system for EVs, aiming to preserve the engaging experience of driving a manual car. This feature is expected to be introduced in production models around 2026, targeting driving enthusiasts seeking a more interactive EV experience.
Various urban areas in the UK have introduced Ultra Low Emission Zones (ULEZ) to cut vehicle-related air pollution, driving demand for cleaner, compliant vehicle technologies. Several advanced driver-assistance system (ADAS) features are only compatible with automatic transmissions.
In 2019, over 50% of UK new-car registrations came with a manual gearbox, but this decreased to 28.7% in 2023. Many carmakers no longer offer a manual gearbox option for ICE-powered vehicles. Volvo and Mercedes-Benz are just two major carmakers that have stopped producing manual transmission vehicles.
Rapid developments in automatic gearbox technology have made the option less of a binary choice and blurred the lines between different driving experiences. This trend is expected to continue until manuals become nearly extinct in new vehicle offerings.
- The decline in manual transmissions in new car sales is partly due to the rising popularity of electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrid cars, as these vehicles typically come equipped with single-speed transmissions.
- The automotive industry is transitioning towards technology-driven solutions, with manual transmissions becoming less common due to the increased use of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) that are only compatible with automatic transmissions.
- Regulatory pressures, such as stricter carbon emission standards and vehicle compliance requirements, have influenced manufacturers to phase out manual transmissions in favor of more fuel-efficient automatics and continuously variable transmissions (CVTs).
- Although manual transmissions may become less prevalent in new car sales, they will likely remain an option in the lifestyle segment, particularly for enthusiasts who value the art of driving and seek a more interactive driving experience.
