Countdown to ETF Decision: May 29 Could Impact Cardano Price Movement
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is poised to make its initial decision regarding Grayscale's application for a Cardano-backed Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) on May 29. This pending decision has sparked interest within the cryptocurrency community.
Grayscale, a leading crypto asset management firm, submitted a proposal for a spot Cardano ETF in the U.S. in February. Although the SEC has a 240-day review period, an extension of the decision deadline is possible. Given that the application was filed on February 24, a final decision by October 22 would be the latest date.
Approval of a spot Cardano ETF would offer investors straightforward access to Cardano, potentially causing a surge in ADA prices. These ETFs simplify the process of acquiring cryptocurrency through traditional brokerage accounts.
Recent data from Polymarket shows that the likelihood of a Cardano ETF being approved by the end of 2025 has risen from 37% to 70%, bolstered by optimistic market sentiments. Eric Balchunas, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg, also shares an optimistic outlook. In April, he estimated the chances of launching a Cardano ETF in 2025 at 75%, forecasting a wave of spot ETF approvals during the summer months.
This May 29 date carries significant weight for ADA investors in the short term. Although the initial decision may not be final, a positive signal could trigger a rapid response in prices. The actual decision will be revealed in the fall, but market anticipation and sensitivity may cause price movements prior to that.
It should be noted that on May 29, the SEC extended the review period for both Grayscale’s Avalanche and Cardano ETF applications, pushing the decision deadline back to July 2025. This extension was anticipated due to the SEC’s traditionally cautious approach towards altcoin-based ETF proposals.
Market enthusiasm for Cardano’s ETF remains high, despite the regulatory hurdles. While the SEC has shown leniency towards Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, proposals for alternative cryptocurrencies face thorough scrutiny, increasing the uncertainty of final approval for the Cardano ETF.
In July 2025, the SEC will reevaluate Grayscale’s Cardano ETF application, with the possibility of further extensions. If the decision deadline extends beyond the current postponement, the likelihood of a final decision by the end of 2025 remains open to question. However, should approval occur within this timeframe, it is expected to be a positive development for both ADA and the broader crypto investment landscape.
Technology plays a crucial role in the upcoming decision regarding Grayscale's Cardano-backed ETF, as the application leverages blockchain technology to simplify investing in cryptocurrency, particularly Cardano. The positive sentiment and optimistic outlook towards the ETF's approval, as reflected by data from Polymarket and Eric Balchunas, further highlight the potential impact of technology on finance, particularly in the cryptocurrency sector.
