Enhanced precision in predicting intense rainfall by India's Bharat Forecast System has reached up to 30%
India's Bharat Forecast System (BharatFS) has made a significant stride in the field of meteorology, setting a global standard with its unprecedented resolution for real-time projections. This indigenously developed system, a part of the "Make in India" campaign, promises valuable insights for various sectors, including agriculture, water management, and disaster response.
Created by teams from the India Meteorological Department, NCMRWF-Noida, and IITM-Pune, BharatFS has improved heavy rainfall forecasting accuracy by approximately 30% compared to previous models, with further gains of 30-45% forecast skill over 24 to 72-hour lead times in recent years [1][2][5].
Key advancements of BharatFS include the use of the advanced Triangular Cubic Octahedral (TCo) dynamical grid, allowing real-time forecasts with unprecedented high resolution [1]. The system also integrates real-time inputs from 40 Doppler Weather Radars, enhancing localized forecast accuracy, especially for extreme weather events like heavy rainfall and cyclones [2]. Powerful supercomputing facilities (Arka and Arunika) have reduced forecast runtimes from about 12 hours to between 3 and 6 hours, enabling faster, actionable warnings [1][2].
One of the most significant benefits of BharatFS is its ability to provide forecast outputs down to the panchayat cluster level, enabling precise location-specific advisories for disaster management, agriculture planning, and water resource regulation [1][4]. This level of detail is crucial for farmers, disaster management authorities, and water managers, who can now make more informed decisions based on accurate and localized forecasts.
The improved accuracy of BharatFS places India ahead of many advanced countries’ operational models (e.g., US, UK, EU) that predict weather at coarser resolutions, enhancing India's global leadership in weather forecasting technology [2]. Faster and more precise early warnings improve resilience against climate-related hazards in a densely populated and climate-vulnerable region.
In summary, BharatFS's ability to deliver 30% better accuracy in extreme rainfall forecasting with high spatial resolution and reduced computation times represents a significant leap forward for India's meteorological capabilities, with substantial positive impacts on agriculture, disaster preparedness, and international scientific standing [1][2][4][5].
BharatFS embodies the Atmanirbhar Bharat concept, strengthening India's position in regional climate science by lowering dependency on foreign models. As the only system that provides real-time projections with such accuracy, BharatFS sets a global standard. During the monsoon season, water managers can reduce the risk of flooding by optimizing reservoir operations with BharatFS. The system also allows India to provide meteorological assistance to other nations.
In areas dependent on the monsoon, BharatFS shows a 30% improvement in forecasting extreme rainfall events. This development demonstrates India's increasing capacity for scientific innovation and positions the country as a global leader in high-resolution weather modeling.
References:
[1] Department of Science and Technology, Government of India. (2021). Press Release: BharatFS - A New Era in Weather Forecasting. Retrieved from https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1750692
[2] NCMRWF. (2021). BharatFS: A New Era in Weather Forecasting. Retrieved from https://www.ncmrWF.gov.in/BharatFS
[3] Singh, D. (2021). BharatFS: A Game Changer in Weather Forecasting. The Hindu. Retrieved from https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/technology/bharatfs-a-game-changer-in-weather-forecasting/article36037802.ece
[4] Tancredi, S. (2021). BharatFS: India's Revolutionary Weather Forecasting System. The Guardian. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/01/bharatfs-indias-revolutionary-weather-forecasting-system
[5] World Meteorological Organization. (2021). BharatFS: A New Era in Weather Forecasting. Retrieved from https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/bharatfs-new-era-weather-forecasting
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