Finnish Institute Pioneers Real-Time Search Data for EU Unemployment Forecasts
Statistical agencies worldwide are exploring alternative data sources to enhance economic forecasting. However, they face challenges such as data availability and consistency. Meanwhile, innovative projects like ETLA's use of internet search data are pushing boundaries.
ETLA, a Finnish research institute, is at the forefront of this shift. It uses real-time Google search data to forecast unemployment levels in EU countries daily for the next three months via its ETLAnow tool. Additionally, ETLA is collaborating with a start-up to improve business activity analysis using Finland's business register and online data.
Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, has agreements with retailers for retail scanner data. However, accessing similar data from banks and credit card companies proves challenging. Ensuring data availability over time, particularly government data, is crucial for longitudinal analysis in economic forecasting.
Public-private partnerships could unlock better data sharing and analysis opportunities. Analyzing data from employment agencies and professional networks like LinkedIn could provide deeper insights into labor market skills matching. The Center for Data Innovation hosted a policy forum at the European Parliament to discuss these very topics.
Lucy Sioli, Head of Unit at DG CONNECT in the European Commission, oversees artificial intelligence initiatives. As statistical agencies modernize their methods, consistent data gathering and analysis across European countries remain a key challenge. Despite hurdles, innovative projects like ETLA's demonstrate the potential of alternative data sources in economic forecasting.
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