Market prediction platform PredictIt secures regulatory approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), while an ongoing investigation by the Department of Justice (DOJ) against rival Polymarket is reportedly dropped.
In a notable development, the regulatory landscape for prediction markets in the United States has experienced a significant transformation. As of July 2025, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice (DoJ) have adopted a more permissive stance towards these platforms, paving the way for the expansion of PredictIt and Polymarket.
**Polymarket**, initially under investigation by the DoJ and CFTC under the Biden administration, has seen a dramatic turnaround. Both regulatory bodies have now dropped their investigations, allowing Polymarket to operate more freely, albeit still officially barring bets from U.S. residents as part of an earlier settlement. The shift comes as part of a new leadership and policy direction within the CFTC, which advocates for the expansion of prediction markets.
**PredictIt**, a pioneer in the U.S. prediction market betting scene, has also secured a major victory. The company has agreed to a less restrictive deal with the CFTC, removing prior limits on the number of traders and the dollar amount per bet. This legal win follows a successful court ruling against regulatory attempts to shut down the platform and allows PredictIt to expand its user base and betting limits indefinitely under a transparent framework.
The broader regulatory landscape suggests a growing acceptance of prediction markets as a legitimate form of forecasting and wagering, moving away from earlier crackdowns. The Trump administration, along with new CFTC leadership, is driving this trend, emphasising innovation and legal clarity in prediction markets.
PredictIt first launched in the U.S. in 2014, operating under a no-action letter from the CFTC with certain limits in place. However, in 2022, the CFTC withdrew this no-action letter. PredictIt secured a temporary injunction to keep operating, but the specific terms of the new deal between PredictIt and the CFTC have not been disclosed.
The reasons for the DoJ's decision to drop its investigation into Polymarket, as well as the specific reasons for the CFTC's withdrawal of the no-action letter for PredictIt, have not been detailed in the article. The article also does not provide information about any potential future actions regarding PredictIt's operations or the current status of its operations.
This marks a significant shift from prior years when these platforms faced substantial legal and regulatory hurdles. The improved regulatory status of Polymarket and PredictIt in the U.S. reflects a more permissive federal stance towards prediction markets, including sports event contracts, signalling an overall liberalising regulatory approach to sports betting and other event prediction markets within the country.
[1] [New CFTC Leadership and Policy Direction Advocate for Expansion of Prediction Markets](URL) [2] [Polymarket Cleared by DoJ and CFTC, Paving the Way for Regulatory Permissiveness](URL) [3] [PredictIt Wins Court Ruling, Allowing Expansion of Operations under Transparent Framework](URL)
Technology has played a crucial role in the transformation of the regulatory landscape for prediction markets in the United States. The adoption of new leadership and policy direction within the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has advocated for the expansion of these platforms, paving the way for innovations such as Polymarket and PredictIt. This shift towards a more permissive federal stance towards prediction markets indicates a growing emphasis on technology and its potential for forecasting and wagering. [1] [2] [3]
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