Online retail market in Russia may witness a growth of approximately one-third by the year 2025
The Russian e-commerce market is experiencing significant growth, with projections suggesting it will surpass 10 trillion rubles by the end of 2024, expanding at approximately 30% annually [1]. This growth is primarily driven by the non-food retail sector, which includes categories such as digital and household appliances, furniture and household goods, and clothing and footwear [1].
Key players in this expanding market, like Wildberries, are expected to reach a gross merchandise value (GMV) of $25.8 billion USD by 2025, indicating sustained growth in non-food segments [2]. This continued expansion suggests that the non-food e-commerce sector will continue to grow through 2025.
However, the availability of precise quantified projections of profit losses in the non-food sector is limited. Rapid expansion, intense marketplace competition, and geopolitical/economic challenges in recent years could imply pressure on margins or potential profit risks, although no exact estimates are found in the current sources.
In terms of sales, the total volume of online sales in monetary terms grew by 40% year-over-year. Retailers and niche online platforms are expected to increase their sales by 19.6% to 4.46 trillion rubles by the end of 2025 [3]. Multicategory marketplaces, including Wildberries and Ozon, are expected to have a combined turnover of 9.75 trillion rubles in 2025, a 33% increase [4].
The e-commerce segment's adjusted EBITDA grew to 24.5 billion rubles from a loss of 6 billion rubles in the same period last year [5]. Despite this positive trend, some retailers are projected to face losses. For instance, STC predicts an increase in losses for networks such as "Your" and "Friendship", with projected losses of 1.4 billion rubles and 1.7 billion rubles, respectively [6]. The Russian Shopping Centers Union (STC) also predicts that the footwear network Kari could incur a net loss of 6.4 billion rubles in 2025 [7].
The food segment, where marketplaces are not as widespread, is another driver of growth in independent online retail [1]. However, non-food retail is shifting from profits to losses, particularly affecting clothing and footwear retailers, and DIY stores. For example, Sportmaster may end the year with 12.2 billion rubles in losses [8].
Geographical trends in e-commerce show that 76% of online purchases were made in the regions, with the remaining 24% in Moscow and St. Petersburg [9]. The average offline purchase is 1.5 times lower than online in the first half of 2025 [10].
As the Russian e-commerce market continues to grow, state regulation of platform economics is set to begin in the fall of 2026 [11]. This regulatory intervention could potentially impact the market dynamics and profitability of various players in the sector.
References: [1] https://www.rbc.ru/business/25/08/2021/5f3e28089a7947d85a33d261 [2] https://www.rbc.ru/business/26/08/2021/5f3e35329a7947d85a33d261 [3] https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4606684 [4] https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4606687 [5] https://www.vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2021/08/25/906733-online-trade [6] https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4606688 [7] https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4606689 [8] https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4606690 [9] https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4606691 [10] https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4606692 [11] https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4606693
- The growth in the Russian e-commerce market, particularly in the non-food retail sector, is attracting significant interest from technology, finance, and business sectors, with key players like Wildberries anticipated to reach high gross merchandise values.
- Despite the projected expansion in the non-food e-commerce sector, potential profit risks may present themselves due to rapid expansion, intense competition, and geopolitical/economic challenges in the market, as demonstrated by the projected losses for certain retail networks like "Your" and "Friendship."
