Performance of Stock Market in Initial Half of Trump's Second Presidential Term
In the midst of President Trump's second term, the U.S. stock market has experienced significant volatility, a stark contrast to the relatively steady growth during his first four years.
Since President Trump's second inauguration on January 20, 2025, the Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) has seen a decline of 53.6%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has returned 2.9%, the S&P 500 has generated a total return of 5.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite has returned 6.8%. However, these returns are lower than the average during Trump's initial presidency, which saw the Wilshire 5000 gain over 9% in the first six months and average 13.6% per year [1][3].
The market's turbulence can be attributed to Trump's aggressive trade stance and policy unpredictability. The imposition of heavy tariffs, trade uncertainty, and geopolitical factors have led to sharp downturns, such as the "Liberation Day" event in April 2025, which triggered a decline of over 10% in the S&P 500 within two trading sessions, wiping out nearly $7 trillion in market value [1][4].
Trump's tariff policies have introduced market sensitivity and risk, causing abrupt market movements and affecting investor sentiment. The U.S. dollar has weakened against emerging market currencies, and Treasury bond yields have risen, diminishing the perceived "safe haven" status of U.S. assets, leading to capital outflows towards emerging markets [2][4].
Key stocks have also seen significant movements. Tesla (TSLA) has lost 22.7% since January 17 amid questions about CEO Elon Musk's priorities. Nvidia, on the other hand, has risen 25.2% since Trump's return to the White House, making it the most valuable publicly traded company ever at $4.2 trillion. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) has erased 43.9% of its value due to foul business practices in its Medicare Advantage unit [1].
In the technology sector, Nvidia is the top-performing stock in the S&P 500 since January 17, though it's also one of the riskiest S&P 500 stocks. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has been the top-performing stock in the S&P 500 since January 17, though it's also one of the riskiest S&P 500 stocks [1].
The cryptocurrency market has grown significantly during Trump's second term, with Bitcoin recently crossing $120,000 for the first time. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) is up 11.8% during the second Trump administration [1].
The VanEck Uranium+Nuclear Energy ETF (NLR) has outperformed the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and Nvidia since January 17, with a return of 34.2% through July 18 [1]. Howmet Aerospace (HWM) has seen a 52.2% Trump II gain [1].
Market observers have questioned the future of the U.S. dollar as the linchpin of the global economic system, with emerging markets attracting increased interest from investors [2]. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) has generated a total return of 5.7% from January 17 through July 18, with top holdings including NVDA, Microsoft (MSFT), and Apple (AAPL) [1]. From January 17, 2025, through July 18, 2025, WFIVX generated a total return of 4.8% [1].
In conclusion, President Trump's second term has been marked by market turbulence, with key indexes fluctuating and the MSCI USA index around 6% lower than the time he took office [1][3]. The market remains sensitive to tariff decisions and geopolitical risks [1][3][4].
[1] CNN Business [2] The Wall Street Journal [3] The New York Times [4] Bloomberg
- As President Trump's second term progresses, the cryptocurrency market has seen significant growth, with Bitcoin recently reaching an all-time high of $120,000.
- The VanEck Uranium+Nuclear Energy ETF (NLR) has outperformed the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and Nvidia since President Trump's return to the White House, with a return of 34.2% through July 18.
- In the midst of President Trump's second term, cybersecurity concerns are increasingly being addressed in the realm of DeFi (Decentralized Finance) and other crypto-related ventures due to their inherent digital nature.
- Regulation of initial coin offerings (ICOs) and cryptocurrency trading have been a subject of political discussions within the U.S. government, especially since the volatility in the stock market during Trump's second term.
- A bear market in traditional stocks during President Trump's second term has contributed to a growth in interest in emerging markets and alternative assets like Bitcoin and defi platforms, as investors seek safer investment opportunities.
