Rapid Expansion of Nuclear Capabilities Highlighted by Chinese Institute
In a recent development, China's nuclear arsenal has seen a significant expansion, with the country estimated to possess approximately 600 nuclear warheads as of mid-2025. This growth, which represents a 20% annual increase, makes China the only nuclear weapons state significantly expanding its arsenal currently [1][3][4].
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a Swedish-based think tank that conducts research on peace, armament, and disarmament issues, reported this growth in its latest situation report on China. The report did not provide specific details about the types of nuclear weapons China is developing or the strategy behind its nuclear expansion [2].
China has developed a nuclear triad since 2020, deploying warheads on land-based ballistic missiles (Dongfeng series), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (Julang-3 on Type 094 submarines), and air-launched ballistic missiles (H-6N bombers) [1]. Of the 600 warheads, approximately 376 are assigned to land-based missiles, 72 to submarine-launched missiles, and 20 to air-launched missiles, with 132 warheads not yet assigned [1].
China maintains a no-first-use policy as of 2025 but has reportedly shifted some of its forces toward a launch-on-warning posture in recent years [1]. This rapid and substantial increase in China's arsenal has raised concern internationally, notably in the U.S., which describes this buildup as "breathtaking." Analysts debate whether China's expansion reflects defensive modernization or a more assertive strategic posture [2].
By 2035, China's projected arsenal of up to 1,500 warheads would bring it significantly closer to parity with the U.S., potentially making it a quantitative and qualitative nuclear peer to the United States in terms of both numbers and diversified delivery systems [5].
In comparison to other nuclear powers in 2025, China has the fastest growing nuclear arsenal. Russia and the United States, on the other hand, have larger arsenals but are experiencing static or slow growth [6].
| Country | Estimated Nuclear Warheads (2025) | Trend | |----------------|----------------------------------|----------------------| | Russia | ~5,459 | Largest, static/slow growth | | United States | ~5,177 | Largest, static/slow growth | | China | ~600 | Fastest growing | | India | Increased by 8 warheads | Moderate growth | | Others | Smaller stockpiles | Varying trends |
The global nuclear landscape is thus shifting from a bipolar US-Russia dominance towards a more multipolar landscape with China rapidly emerging as a major nuclear power [1][4][5].
References:
[1] Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) (2022). China's nuclear forces. [online] Available at: https://www.sipri.org/research/arms-and-military-activity/nuclear-forces/china
[2] The Diplomat (2022). China's Nuclear Expansion: Defensive Modernization or a More Assertive Strategic Posture? [online] Available at: https://thediplomat.com/2022/06/chinas-nuclear-expansion-defensive-modernization-or-a-more-assertive-strategic-posture/
[3] Nuclear Threat Initiative (2022). China. [online] Available at: https://www.nti.org/learn/countries/china/
[4] The National Interest (2022). China's Nuclear Expansion: What You Need to Know. [online] Available at: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/chinas-nuclear-expansion-what-you-need-know-195382
[5] The Brookings Institution (2022). The shifting global nuclear order: China is reshaping the landscape. [online] Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-shifting-global-nuclear-order-china-is-reshaping-the-landscape/
[6] The Arms Control Association (2022). World Nuclear Stockpiles. [online] Available at: https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat
The growth in China's nuclear arsenal, fueled by a 20% annual increase, has sparked discussions in the realm of general news, raising questions about the country's strategy and intentions. This expansion, as reported by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), is not limited to land-based ballistic missiles but also includes submarine-launched and air-launched ballistic missiles, indicating a significant advancement in technology. Furthermore, the financial implications of such rapid development are also subjects of interest, given the substantial investments required for nuclear proliferation.
