Strategic Heat Map by Kettera - August 2024
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In a recent guest article published by AlphaWeek, the performance of various hedge fund strategies for August 2025 was reviewed. While specific detailed performance data for some strategies was not readily available, the article provided valuable insights into the broader trends and recent performance of these strategies.
The "style baskets" presented in the letter are research tools created by Kettera Strategies for analysis and comparison purposes. These baskets represent the performance of a class of hedge funds, with the performance for a month represented by an arrow in the letter.
The Nikkei dropped 12% on August 5 due to a sudden spike in volatility caused by an unexpected interest rate hike in Japan. This event had a significant impact on various strategies, with the yen rallying 7% vs. USD in the first three trading days of August due to a violent carry-trade unwind.
In the macro hedge funds sector, both systematic and discretionary trading strategies often combine fundamental, econometric, and quantitative macroeconomic research across asset classes such as currencies and commodities. The HFRI Macro Total Index, which broadly covers hedge funds in macro strategies (including Systematic Trend, Quantitative Global Macro, and Discretionary Global Macro), showed a monthly return of +1.22% in July 2025 but a negative quarterly and year-to-date return as of July 2025 (QTD -1.41%, YTD -1.34%). This suggests some recent positive momentum into late summer but overall challenges earlier in the year.
Quantitative Global Macro programs with more fundamental inputs and those long Fixed Income in Europe and the US performed well in August. In the equities sector, nimble quantitative Global Macro programs that traded equity indices short in the first half of August and long during the second half performed well. However, no direct performance details surfaced for Commodity Specialists focused on Agricultural Markets or Currency Specialists for August 2025 in the provided materials.
Equity-hedged strategies showed generally positive returns in mid-2025, but these are a distinct category from the macro and commodity strategies discussed.
In the foreign exchange (FX) market, quicker FX specialist strategies were able to navigate the fast-moving markets profitably in August, while slower-moving programs did poorly. Returns of FX specialists were negative in August, with the programs that comprise the Hydra style bucket underperforming.
Discretionary Global Macro managers faced a mixed environment in August, with those who read the tea leaves right and capitalized on divergences in global interest rates, stable inflation expectations, and a flexible approach to currencies and commodities performing well. Long US and European bonds and rates, as well as long gold, were profitable exposures for long-term trend following programs in August.
The article also highlighted that if timely, detailed performance rankings for August 2025 by strategy are needed, it is recommended to consult specialized hedge fund industry databases or monthly performance reports from hedge fund research firms (e.g., HFR, BarclayHedge) once they publish August data.
In conclusion, while specific August 2025 data for some strategies was not available, the article provided valuable insights into the broader trends and recent performance of various hedge fund strategies. The performance of these strategies can be impacted by a variety of factors, including unexpected interest rate hikes, carry-trade unwinds, and fast-moving markets. For those interested in the detailed performance rankings, it is advisable to consult specialized industry databases or monthly performance reports from hedge fund research firms.
Investing in technology-driven quantitative global macro programs had a positive impact on some hedge fund strategies in August 2025, as those that incorporated more fundamental inputs and were long fixed-income securities in Europe and the US performed well. Conversely, technology advancements also amplified the challenges experienced by slower-moving FX specialist strategies, causing them to underperform during the same period.
