Trading of Luigi Mangione's future stocks has been ceased by Kalshi.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the U.S. regulatory body for derivatives markets, has instructed Kalshi, America's regulated future prediction market platform, to halt its offering of options on the Luigi Mangione case. Mangione is the alleged killer of UnitedHealth CEO Brian Thompson, who was shot in New York.
The CFTC's decision stems from concerns over compliance with regulatory requirements and market integrity. The markets offered by Kalshi were found to breach a specific code of the platform's existing regulation under the CFTC. The markets in question were based on events linked to Mangione's criminal case, including pleading guilty, facing extradition, conviction, and having an accomplice.
This is not the first time Kalshi has found itself in the midst of controversy. The company launched a legal offensive against the CFTC in 2024 over prediction markets on the US presidential election. The controversy surrounding the Luigi Mangione case has once again brought Kalshi's prediction markets under scrutiny.
Cantrell Dumas, director of derivatives policy at Better Markets, has criticised Kalshi for offering markets on Mangione's case. Dumas expressed discomfort about betting on a human assassination, stating that such markets are inappropriate and could potentially harm the integrity of the prediction market platform.
Interestingly, some Americans have shown sympathy towards Mangione due to their disillusionment with the health system and insurance industry. This sympathy, however, has not translated into widespread support for the prediction markets on Mangione's future.
Mangione was arrested in Pennsylvania, and his plea hearing is yet to take place. The prediction markets offered by Kalshi were halted on December 13, several days after Mangione's arrest on December 9.
As the case progresses, the outcome remains uncertain. However, one thing is clear: the CFTC will continue to monitor Kalshi's activities closely to ensure compliance with regulatory requirements and maintain market integrity.
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