Will Bitcoin's surge towards $98K be propelled by these two crucial factors, potentially fueling its rally?
Bitcoin Breakout slightly Below the Horizon
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Bitcoin's [BTC] MVRV ratio has recently crossed paths with its 365-day SMA, a pattern often preceding significant bullish surges. As of now, BTC is trading at $94,650.57, recording a minuscule dip of 0.18%.
The intersection of technical and on-chain signals has sparked anticipation for a potential breakout above the $95.3K barrier.
Whales Quietly Preparing Bitcoin for Takeoff?
Over the past fortnight, whales have made a strategic move, adding 43,100 BTC to their troves, boosting their holdings from 3.498 million to 3.541 million BTC. This aggressive buying spree, equating to nearly $4 billion in market value, signifies robust confidence among large investors and usually signals forthcoming bullish trends.
Moreover, such purchases during consolidation periods indicate long-term trust rather than short-term speculation, adding substantial upside pressure. In the past, such accumulation patterns have been followed by bullish upswings, especially when prices approaching resistance zones.
Shrinking Exchange Reserves Signaling Supply Crunch?
Additionally, exchange reserves have experienced a gradual decline of 2.33% over a seven-day period, now standing at 2.48 million BTC. This sustained dip indicates that fewer coins remain available for trading on centralized exchanges.
When combined with increased accumulation, this trend often points toward a tightening supply dynamic that can strengthen price surges. Consequently, the likelihood of a supply-induced breakout increases as reserves continue to decrease.
Is the BTC Breakout Near?
The 4-hour chart reveals Bitcoin forming an ascending triangle, with the price consistently probing the $95.3K resistance. Each unsuccessful assault on resistance has demonstrated sellers' weakening position, while buyers maintain their relentless pressure. Thus, a breakout appears imminent if bulls maintain their momentum.
In the event of a closure above the resistance barrier, Bitcoin could surge toward $98K, a move in line with historical price behavior following similar frameworks and supply conditions.
Network Activity Supporting Sustainable Uptrend?
The NVT ratio has dropped to 187.33, suggesting an increase in transaction volume relative to Bitcoin's market capitalization. This decline typically mirrors healthier network fundamentals and expanding utility, supporting a consistent price increase.
Furthermore, the falling NVT ratio during consolidation periods implies that the upswing may be influenced by genuine usage rather than hoopla.
Despite bullish signals, sentiment remains gripped by pessimism, with 115 bears compared to 111 bulls as per IntoTheBlock. However, sentiment usually trails behind actual market movements, particularly when big investors are driving accumulation. If Bitcoin closes above the $95.3K hurdle, sentiment could swiftly reverse, attracting broader market participation.
Is BTC's Breakout toward $98K Imminent?
Bitcoin now stands at a precipice. Whale accumulation, shrinking reserves, and technical strength all suggest a move towards $98K. Although sentiment remains bearish, underlying metrics indicate that momentum is building, and if bulls remain persistent, a breakout seems imminent.
Take a Survey: Chance to Win $500 USDTIs Cardano Quietly Gaining Traction as a Layer-1 Contender of the Decade?
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Enrichment Data:Overall: Bitcoin's potential breakout beyond $95.3K and toward $98K is driven by multiple technical and fundamental factors:
1. Institutional Adoption and ETF Inflows Growing institutional interest, primarily through Bitcoin ETFs, is infusing substantial liquidity into the market. Analysts attribute bullish targets like $200K+ to sustained ETF inflows and Bitcoin's dual role as both a risk-on and safe-haven asset[1][4].
2. Technical Reclamation of Key Levels Bitcoin has recently reclaimed essential support levels above $95K, signaling a bullish trend. This technical recovery aligns with historical trends where BTC consolidates before advancing to new highs during four-year market cycles[2].
3. Macroeconomic Pressures and Safe-Haven Demand Macroeconomic instability, including policy shifts in the U.S. and Federal Reserve decisions, is influencing some investors to seek refuge in Bitcoin. Although the April 2025 gold rally initially impeded BTC, stabilization in risk appetite could divert investments into cryptocurrencies[5].
4. Whale Accumulation and On-Chain Signals Large investors (whales) are shown to be bolstering their BTC holdings, with analysts citing robust network expansion metrics, like Metcalfe's Law. These trends historically foreshadow bullish phases, strengthening predictions of a breakout[1][3].
Short-Term Price Catalysts
- May 2025 Forecast: Analysts predict an average BTC price of $122K, with potential volatility ranging from $112K-$132K. A move towards $98K would align with this intermediate upward trajectory[3].
- Liquidity Shifts: Slipping confidence in traditional assets (e.g., U.S. equities) could accelerate capital migration into Bitcoin, especially if ETF inflows remain persistent[1][5].
While April 2025's sideways meandering near $95.3K reflects tariff-related uncertainty, the convergence of technical might and institutional inflows provides a clear pathway toward $98K and beyond.
- The strategic addition of 43,100 Bitcoin by whales, amounting to a market value of nearly $4 billion, indicates robust confidence among large investors, signaling a potential upcoming bullish trend in the cryptocurrency market.
- The sustained decrease in exchange reserves, with a 2.33% decline over a seven-day period, suggests a shortage in the available Bitcoin for trading on centralized exchanges, potentially leading to a tightening supply dynamic that can strengthen price surges.
- A breakout above the $95.3K resistance appears imminent if bulls maintain their momentum, as each unsuccessful attempt to breach resistance has shown sellers weakening while buyers persist.
- The NVT ratio, which suggests an increase in transaction volume relative to Bitcoin's market capitalization, has declined, pointing to healthier network fundamentals and expanding utility, supporting a sustainable uptrend.
- Analysts attribute bullish targets like $200K+ to sustained Bitcoin ETF inflows and Bitcoin's dual role as both a risk-on and safe-haven asset.
- The potential breakout beyond $95.3K and toward $98K in Bitcoin is also influenced by macroeconomic instability, playing a role in investors seeking refuge in Bitcoin.
- In an analysis of Cardano, it is noted that growing interest in the coin positions it as a potential Layer-1 contender for the decade, leveraging its innovative technology and promising long-term potential.
