WTO Reports Surge in Global Trade, Raises 2025 Forecast
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has reported a significant surge in worldwide trade in goods during the first half of 2025. This growth, driven partly by increased imports into the United States and Europe, has led the WTO to revise its trade forecasts for the year.
The WTO has raised its trade forecast for 2025 to 2.4 percent growth, a stark revision from its earlier prediction of a 0.2 percent decline. This positive outlook is largely due to a strong first half, boosted by a surge in trade in goods requiring artificial intelligence, such as semiconductors and servers.
However, the WTO has also lowered its trade forecast for 2026 to 0.5 percent growth. This adjustment reflects transactions brought forward due to US tariff threats, which have led companies to stockpile goods ahead of potential tariff hikes. Despite these unilateral actions, three-quarters of world trade continues to follow agreed rules, with few exceptions.
The United States remains the world’s largest goods importer in the first half of 2025. In Europe, goods imports increased by 15% compared to the previous year, reaching around 84.5 billion euros from January to May 2025. The main suppliers to Europe were Brazil, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The WTO has revised its forecasts for US and European imports and exports in 2025, reflecting the impact of trade disruptions and companies' responses to potential tariff hikes. Despite these disruptions, the WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala describes the current trade situation as the greatest since 80 years, highlighting the significant impact of US trade policies on global trade.
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